Daniil Medvedev #6 def. Tommy Paul #18

6-3 1-6 6-3

Daniil Medvedev defeated Tommy Paul 6-3 1-6 6-3 in the 2026 Shanghai Masters quarterfinal on hard courts on October 16, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatDaniil MedvedevTommy Paul
Serving
AcesServes that land in and are not touched by the returner.
167
Double faultsService points lost by missing both first and second serve.
81
First serve %Percentage of service points where the first serve landed in.
64.0%60.0%
First serve points won %Percentage of points won after making a first serve.
74.0%69.0%
Second serve points won %Percentage of second-serve points won, including points lost through double faults.
36.0%40.5%
Break points saved %Percentage of break points won by the server.
79.0%66.7%
Service points won %Percentage of all points won while serving.
60.0%57.1%
Returning
Break points converted %Percentage of break-point chances won by the returner.
33.3%21.0%
Return points won %Percentage of all points won while returning.
42.9%40.0%
Overall
Total points won %Percentage of all completed points won.
51.6%48.4%
Match Serve+This match’s service points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
-4.5-7.4
Match Return+This match’s return points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
+7.4+4.5

* Match Serve+ and Match Return+ compare this match with the ATP 2026 average from available match stats. Zero is average; +5 means five percentage points above average. No opponent adjustment.

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldDaniil MedvedevTommy Paul
Country RUS USA
Birth dateFeb 11, 1996May 17, 1997
Age3029
Height198 cm185 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)618
Ranking points (entering)3,8602,375
Elo (entering)1,9821,979
Current career W-L447–190240–154
Current career earnings$52,943,635$15,628,263
Pre-match H2H
Daniil Medvedev #6 4 – 1 Tommy Paul #18

Path

Daniil Medvedev's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Stefanos Tsitsipas #436-4 7-5WH2HMatch dataOct 14, 2026R16
Dalibor Svrcina #1266-2 6-3WH2HMatch dataOct 12, 2026R32
Jan-Lennard Struff #594-6 6-4 6-3WH2HMatch dataOct 10, 2026R64

Daniil Medvedev's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Rafael Jodar #133-6 4-6LH2HMatch dataOct 17, 2026SF

Tommy Paul's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Zizou Bergs #397-6(5) 6-4WH2HMatch dataOct 14, 2026R16
Valentin Vacherot #146-4 6-2WH2HMatch dataOct 12, 2026R32
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo #526-2 6-2WH2HMatch dataOct 10, 2026R64