Alexander Bublik #11 def. Lorenzo Musetti #7

7-6(2) 6-3

Alexander Bublik defeated Lorenzo Musetti 7-6(2) 6-3 in the 2026 Hong Kong Open final on hard courts on January 11, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatAlexander BublikLorenzo Musetti
Serving
AcesServes that land in and are not touched by the returner.
105
Double faultsService points lost by missing both first and second serve.
41
First serve %Percentage of service points where the first serve landed in.
76.0%63.0%
First serve points won %Percentage of points won after making a first serve.
78.0%63.0%
Second serve points won %Percentage of second-serve points won, including points lost through double faults.
44.0%56.0%
Break points saved %Percentage of break points won by the server.
67.0%57.0%
Service points won %Percentage of all points won while serving.
70.0%60.0%
Returning
Break points converted %Percentage of break-point chances won by the returner.
43.0%33.0%
Return points won %Percentage of all points won while returning.
40.0%30.0%
Overall
Total points won %Percentage of all completed points won.
54.0%46.0%
Match Serve+This match’s service points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
+5.6-4.4
Match Return+This match’s return points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
+4.3-5.7

* Match Serve+ and Match Return+ compare this match with the ATP 2026 average from available match stats. Zero is average; +5 means five percentage points above average. No opponent adjustment.

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldAlexander BublikLorenzo Musetti
Country KAZ ITA
Birth dateJun 17, 1997Mar 3, 2002
Age2823
Height196 cm185 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandOne-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)117
Ranking points (entering)2,8453,990
Elo (entering)1,9951,989
Current career W-L205–179191–135
Current career earnings$12,658,208$15,610,125
Pre-match H2H

Path

Alexander Bublik's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Marcos Giron #643-6 6-4 6-2WH2HMatch dataJan 10, 2026SF
Juncheng Shang #4066-1 7-6(2)WH2HMatch dataJan 10, 2026QF
Botic van de Zandschulp #756-3 6-3WH2HMatch dataJan 9, 2026R16

Alexander Bublik's next match

No later same-event match found for the winner.

Lorenzo Musetti's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Andrey Rublev #166-7(3) 7-5 6-4WH2HMatch dataJan 10, 2026SF
Coleman Wong #1506-4 6-4WH2HMatch dataJan 10, 2026QF
Tomas Martin Etcheverry #576-7(3) 6-2 6-4WH2HMatch dataJan 9, 2026R16