R16 Australian Open 2026

Carlos Alcaraz #1 def. Tommy Paul #20

7-6(6) 6-4 7-5

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul 7-6(6) 6-4 7-5 in the 2026 Australian Open fourth round on hard courts on January 25, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatCarlos AlcarazTommy Paul
Serving
AcesServes that land in and are not touched by the returner.
27
Double faultsService points lost by missing both first and second serve.
05
First serve %Percentage of service points where the first serve landed in.
73.0%60.0%
First serve points won %Percentage of points won after making a first serve.
78.0%80.0%
Second serve points won %Percentage of second-serve points won, including points lost through double faults.
68.0%43.0%
Break points saved %Percentage of break points won by the server.
50.0%70.0%
Service points won %Percentage of all points won while serving.
76.0%65.0%
Returning
Break points converted %Percentage of break-point chances won by the returner.
30.0%50.0%
Return points won %Percentage of all points won while returning.
35.0%24.0%
Overall
Total points won %Percentage of all completed points won.
54.0%46.0%
Match Serve+This match’s service points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
+11.5+0.5
Match Return+This match’s return points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
-0.5-11.5

* Match Serve+ and Match Return+ compare this match with the ATP 2026 average from available match stats. Zero is average; +5 means five percentage points above average. No opponent adjustment.

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldCarlos AlcarazTommy Paul
Country ESP USA
Birth dateMay 5, 2003May 17, 1997
Age2228
Height183 cm185 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)120
Ranking points (entering)12,0502,050
Elo (entering)2,3571,959
Current career W-L299–69240–154
Current career earnings$66,033,826$15,628,263
Pre-match H2H
Carlos Alcaraz #1 5 – 2 Tommy Paul #20

Path

Carlos Alcaraz's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Corentin Moutet #376-2 6-4 6-1WH2HMatch dataJan 23, 2026R32
Yannick Hanfmann #1027-6(4) 6-3 6-2WH2HMatch dataJan 21, 2026R64
Adam Walton #796-3 7-6(2) 6-2WH2HMatch dataJan 18, 2026R128

Carlos Alcaraz's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Alex de Minaur #67-5 6-2 6-1WH2HMatch dataJan 27, 2026QF

Tommy Paul's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #146-1 6-1WH2HMatch dataJan 23, 2026R32
Thiago Agustin Tirante #1036-3 6-4 6-2WH2HMatch dataJan 21, 2026R64
Aleksandar Kovacevic #566-4 6-3 6-3WH2HMatch dataJan 19, 2026R128