SF Mexican Open 2026

Frances Tiafoe #28 def. Brandon Nakashima #29

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4

Frances Tiafoe defeated Brandon Nakashima 3-6 7-6(6) 6-4 in the 2026 Mexican Open semifinal on hard courts on February 28, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatFrances TiafoeBrandon Nakashima
Serving
AcesServes that land in and are not touched by the returner.
716
Double faultsService points lost by missing both first and second serve.
21
First serve %Percentage of service points where the first serve landed in.
58.0%67.0%
First serve points won %Percentage of points won after making a first serve.
72.0%71.0%
Second serve points won %Percentage of second-serve points won, including points lost through double faults.
43.0%55.0%
Break points saved %Percentage of break points won by the server.
60.0%64.0%
Service points won %Percentage of all points won while serving.
60.0%65.0%
Returning
Break points converted %Percentage of break-point chances won by the returner.
36.0%40.0%
Return points won %Percentage of all points won while returning.
35.0%40.0%
Overall
Total points won %Percentage of all completed points won.
48.0%52.0%
Match Serve+This match’s service points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
-4.5+0.5
Match Return+This match’s return points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
-0.5+4.5

* Match Serve+ and Match Return+ compare this match with the ATP 2026 average from available match stats. Zero is average; +5 means five percentage points above average. No opponent adjustment.

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldFrances TiafoeBrandon Nakashima
Country USA USA
Birth dateJan 20, 1998Aug 3, 2001
Age2824
Height188 cm188 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)2829
Ranking points (entering)1,5901,535
Elo (entering)1,8621,824
Current career W-L268–218152–127
Current career earnings$20,177,782$9,373,615
Pre-match H2H

Path

Frances Tiafoe's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Mattia Bellucci #1106-3 6-4WH2HMatch dataFeb 26, 2026QF
Aleksandar Kovacevic #756-4 3-6 7-6(7)WH2HMatch dataFeb 25, 2026R16
Nuno Borges #486-4 6-4WH2HMatch dataFeb 24, 2026R32

Frances Tiafoe's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Flavio Cobolli #206-7(4) 4-6LH2HMatch dataFeb 28, 2026F

Brandon Nakashima's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Valentin Vacherot #272-6 6-2 6-3WH2HMatch dataFeb 27, 2026QF
Patrick Kypson #1036-4 6-4WH2HMatch dataFeb 25, 2026R16
Elias Ymer #1906-3 6-4WH2HMatch dataFeb 23, 2026R32