Aryna Sabalenka #1 def. Naomi Osaka #16

6-2 6-4

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Naomi Osaka 6-2 6-4 in the 2026 Indian Wells Open fourth round on hard courts on March 10, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatAryna SabalenkaNaomi Osaka
Aces84
Double faults04
First serve %75.0%63.0%
First serve points won %76.0%58.0%
Second serve points won %50.0%48.0%
Break points saved %100.0%67.0%
Break points converted %33.0%0.0%
Service points won %70.0%54.0%
Return points won %46.0%30.0%
Total points won %56.0%44.0%
Serve rating131103
Return rating8652

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldAryna SabalenkaNaomi Osaka
Country BLR JPN
Birth dateMay 5, 1998Oct 16, 1997
Age2728
Height182 cm180 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)116
Ranking points (entering)10,6752,324
Elo (entering)2,2551,999
Current career W-L413–144250–135
Current career earnings$50,422,999$26,612,806
Pre-match H2H
Aryna Sabalenka #1 0 1 Naomi Osaka #16

Path

Aryna Sabalenka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Jaqueline Cristian #356-4 6-1WH2HMatch dataMar 8, 2026R32
Himeno Sakatsume #1366-4 6-2WH2HMatch dataMar 6, 2026R64

Aryna Sabalenka's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Victoria Mboko #107-6(0) 6-4WH2HMatch dataMar 12, 2026QF

Naomi Osaka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Camila Osorio #616-1 3-6 6-1WH2HMatch dataMar 8, 2026R32
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva #977-5 6-2WH2HMatch dataMar 7, 2026R64