R16 Madrid Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka #1 def. Naomi Osaka #15

6-7(1) 6-3 6-2

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Naomi Osaka 6-7(1) 6-3 6-2 in the 2026 Madrid Open fourth round on clay courts on April 27, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatAryna SabalenkaNaomi Osaka
Serving
AcesServes that land in and are not touched by the returner.
59
Double faultsService points lost by missing both first and second serve.
65
First serve %Percentage of service points where the first serve landed in.
60.0%59.8%
First serve points won %Percentage of points won after making a first serve.
79.2%67.1%
Second serve points won %Percentage of second-serve points won, including points lost through double faults.
59.4%42.9%
Break points saved %Percentage of break points won by the server.
0.0%71.4%
Service points won %Percentage of all points won while serving.
71.2%57.4%
Returning
Break points converted %Percentage of break-point chances won by the returner.
28.6%100.0%
Return points won %Percentage of all points won while returning.
42.6%28.7%
Overall
Total points won %Percentage of all completed points won.
54.0%46.0%
Match Serve+This match’s service points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
+14.3+0.5
Match Return+This match’s return points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
-0.5-14.3

* Match Serve+ and Match Return+ compare this match with the WTA 2026 average from available match stats. Zero is average; +5 means five percentage points above average. No opponent adjustment.

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldAryna SabalenkaNaomi Osaka
Country BLR JPN
Birth dateMay 5, 1998Oct 16, 1997
Age2728
Height182 cm180 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)115
Ranking points (entering)10,8952,324
Elo (entering)2,3201,983
Current career W-L417–147252–138
Current career earnings$53,284,864$27,198,526
Pre-match H2H
Aryna Sabalenka #1 1 – 1 Naomi Osaka #15

Path

Aryna Sabalenka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Jaqueline Cristian #336-1 6-4WH2HMatch dataApr 25, 2026R32
Peyton Stearns #437-5 6-3WH2HMatch dataApr 23, 2026R64

Aryna Sabalenka's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Hailey Baptiste #326-2 2-6 6-7(6)LH2HMatch dataApr 28, 2026QF

Naomi Osaka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Anhelina Kalinina #1106-1 6-3WH2HMatch dataApr 25, 2026R32
Camila Osorio #836-2 7-5WH2HMatch dataApr 23, 2026R64