R16 Madrid Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka #1 def. Naomi Osaka #15

6-7(1) 6-3 6-2

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Naomi Osaka 6-7(1) 6-3 6-2 in the 2026 Madrid Open fourth round on clay courts on April 27, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatAryna SabalenkaNaomi Osaka
Aces59
Double faults65
First serve %60.0%60.0%
First serve points won %79.0%67.0%
Second serve points won %59.0%43.0%
Break points saved %0.0%71.0%
Break points converted %29.0%100.0%
Service points won %71.0%57.0%
Return points won %43.0%29.0%
Total points won %54.0%46.0%
Serve rating120108
Return rating80103

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldAryna SabalenkaNaomi Osaka
Country BLR JPN
Birth dateMay 5, 1998Oct 16, 1997
Age2728
Height182 cm180 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)115
Ranking points (entering)10,8952,324
Elo (entering)2,3201,988
Current career W-L413–144250–135
Current career earnings$50,422,999$26,612,806
Pre-match H2H
Aryna Sabalenka #1 1 1 Naomi Osaka #15

Path

Aryna Sabalenka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Jaqueline Cristian #336-1 6-4WH2HMatch dataApr 25, 2026R32
Peyton Stearns #437-5 6-3WH2HMatch dataApr 23, 2026R64

Aryna Sabalenka's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Hailey Baptiste #326-2 2-6 6-7(6)LH2HMatch dataApr 28, 2026QF

Naomi Osaka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Anhelina Kalinina #1106-1 6-3WH2HMatch dataApr 25, 2026R32
Camila Osorio #836-2 7-5WH2HMatch dataApr 23, 2026R64