QF Canadian Open 2026

Elena Rybakina #2 def. Naomi Osaka #13

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Elena Rybakina defeated Naomi Osaka 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 in the 2026 Canadian Open quarterfinal on hard courts on August 11, 2026.

Match Information

Match Statistics

StatElena RybakinaNaomi Osaka
Serving
AcesServes that land in and are not touched by the returner.
153
Double faultsService points lost by missing both first and second serve.
66
First serve %Percentage of service points where the first serve landed in.
56.0%62.4%
First serve points won %Percentage of points won after making a first serve.
73.8%64.7%
Second serve points won %Percentage of second-serve points won, including points lost through double faults.
47.9%53.7%
Break points saved %Percentage of break points won by the server.
57.1%50.0%
Service points won %Percentage of all points won while serving.
62.4%60.6%
Returning
Break points converted %Percentage of break-point chances won by the returner.
50.0%42.9%
Return points won %Percentage of all points won while returning.
39.5%37.6%
Overall
Total points won %Percentage of all completed points won.
50.9%49.1%
Match Serve+This match’s service points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
+5.5+3.6
Match Return+This match’s return points won percentage minus the tour’s season average, in percentage points. Zero is average; +5 means five points above average. Match-weighted available stats; no opponent adjustment.
-3.6-5.5

* Match Serve+ and Match Return+ compare this match with the WTA 2026 average from available match stats. Zero is average; +5 means five percentage points above average. No opponent adjustment.

Win Probability

How the market's view of each player's chances changed through the match.

Source: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect probability updates.

Player Comparison

FieldElena RybakinaNaomi Osaka
Country KAZ JPN
Birth dateJun 17, 1999Oct 16, 1997
Age2728
Height184 cm180 cm
HandednessRight-HandedRight-Handed
Backhand styleTwo-Handed BackhandTwo-Handed Backhand
Ranking (entering)213
Ranking points (entering)8,3162,846
Elo (entering)2,1182,055
Current career W-L315–130252–138
Current career earnings$35,318,052$27,092,806
Pre-match H2H
Elena Rybakina #2 0 – 0 Naomi Osaka #13

Path

Elena Rybakina's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Liudmila Samsonova #556-4 4-6 6-4WH2HMatch dataAug 9, 2026R16
Ann Li #316-2 7-5WH2HMatch dataAug 7, 2026R32
Daria Kasatkina #616-3 5-7 6-4WH2HMatch dataAug 5, 2026R64

Elena Rybakina's next match

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Coco Gauff #45-7 6-2 6-2WH2HMatch dataAug 13, 2026SF

Naomi Osaka's path

OpponentScoreW-LH2HMatch DataDateRound
Leylah Fernandez #346-4 6-4WH2HMatch dataAug 9, 2026R16
Elise Mertens #246-1 6-2WH2HMatch dataAug 7, 2026R32
Panna Udvardy #766-2 6-4WH2HMatch dataAug 5, 2026R64